Indipendent wrote:Britain's housing market boom is finally on the verge of coming to an end, new figures reveal today. House prices in two-thirds of postcodes in England and Wales registered no increase at all during May or even fell, according to Hometrack, the housing market analyst.
The figures provide fresh evidence that a double whammy of higher interest rates, following four Bank of England base rate rises in the past 10 months, and rising supply is at last taking its toll on the housing market.
The average price of a UK home rose by 0.6 per cent in May, according to Hometrack, the housing information business. That was lower than April's 0.7 per cent gain and pushed the year-on-year rate of increase down from 6.8 to 6.7 per cent.
Crucially, a breakdown of the data in England and Wales showed only 33.9 per cent of postcodes enjoyed rising prices during the month, a sharp fall from 43.7 per cent in April.
Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, predicted the slowdown would continue. "The steady ratcheting up of interest rates was bound to take its toll eventually," he said.
"We expect the headline rate of growth to slow relatively quickly over the rest of the year towards 4 per cent as affordability pressures put a continued squeeze on purchasing power and more supply comes to the market."
Mr Donnell added the expected slowdown would be exacerbated by any further interest rate rises. Rates have been lifted four times since last August, taking them to 5.5 per cent. City analysts believe there is a 75 per cent chance they will rise to 5.75 per cent over the summer, and a 30 per cent chance they will hit 6 per cent.
Hometrack warned the housing market was experiencing falling demand in the face of increasing resistance to sky-high pricing levels. During May, there was no increase in the number of new buyers registering with estate agents, it said.
Supply, on the other hand has continued to increase, with a 6 per cent rise in the number of properties coming on to the market. Hometrack said the growth in supply was due to vendors, primarily in London and the South-east, looking to cash in on strong market conditions. There was also a rush to avoid the 1 June introduction of Home Information Packs - which have now been delayed and watered down.
"This increase comes at a time when there are signs of wavering demand in the face of higher interest rates. And it raises the question as to just how saleable these properties will prove to be," Mr Donnell said.
Hometrack's figures show the property market in London continues to dominate the rest of the country. The London market posted a 1.3 per cent increase in prices last month, which was enough to keep the nationwide figure at a relatively healthy level.
The figures exclude the Northern Ireland property market, which has been booming this year, and would otherwise have increased Hometrack's nationwide figure for May. However, the analyst's warnings on house prices follow a series of indications from other property experts that the market is cooling rapidly.
"There are emerging signs that pressure on householders' finances is dampening housing demand," said Martin Ellis, the chief economist at Halifax Bank, Britain's biggest mortgage lender. "We expect the higher level of interest rates, negative real earnings growth and above-inflation council tax bill increase to lead to slower house price growth over the coming months."
Nationwide, Britain's biggest building society, is due to release its house price index figures for May on Thursday. The society has already warned it expects a sharp slowdown in the housing market during the second half of the year. It said last month it now expects the annual rate of housing market inflation for 2007 to be as low as 5 per cent.
Graham Beale, Nationwide's chief executive, said: "Our forecast for house price growth is 5 per cent to 8 per cent in 2007, reflecting a cooling in the second half of the year as increased interest rates filter through."
The most recent figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) also included worrying signs that house price inflation is on the verge of slowing sharply. While Rics said the market was for now in "rude health", it pointed out that the number of new buyers registering an interest in the market fell for the fifth month running in April, hitting demand.
Rics also warned the increasing supply of homes for sale led, in April, to the first increase in unsold stock on surveyors' books since last November. The ratio of completed sales to the stock of available property fell for the first time since May 2006.
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